dibagger

Bitcoin BTC

Store of valueRank 1

$78,267

+1.6% over 24h

Data as of Nov 4, 03:30 PM

The first decentralized cryptocurrency, launched in 2009: a peer-to-peer payment network without intermediaries, secured by proof-of-work mining, with supply capped at 21 million BTC.

Verdict

Cold · below its trendAQuality: very strong
FreezingCold(undervalued)MildWarmHot

Trend value

$118,345

Gap to trend

−34%Below its trend value

Bitcoin is below its trend value. The full analysis adds the range, the risk level, the detailed metrics and the €10,000 simulator.

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Estimate to cross-check

Estimate reliability: 67/100

This is not a project grade: it measures how solid the data behind the number is.

  • ✓ Price history: 72 months
  • ✗ No measurable revenue: the estimate rests on the price trend alone
  • ✓ Source: public market data
Based on the price trendHow it is calculated

Descriptive estimate based on past data. Not a recommendation to buy or sell, nor a price target.

Price and trend value

Nov 4, 2026Price $78,267Trend value $118,345−34% below

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Below:

Scenario (an assumption, not a forecast)

The scenario extends the estimated value along its trend and Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle, over 1 to 5 years. It is included in the free account for the 10 largest cryptos.

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Since Apr 2013
×578
All-time high (Oct 2025)
$124,746 · −37%
Time spent below its trend
43% of days
Usual gap (median)
+8.6%
The green area follows the 200-week average, adjusted by the usual gap between price and that average. The dotted lines bound the zone where Bitcoin spent half of the time.

Green dots at the start: average price since launch, before a full year was available.

Chart: TradingView Lightweight Charts™ · Trend value drawn since May 27, 2013

AProject qualityVery strong · 93/100

Price risk

In the full analysis

In the full analysis

Grade from A (very strong) to E (speculative) for Bitcoin. How it is calculated

Comparables

See the ranking

Same family, similar size.

Its place on the map

Strong and discountedDiscounted but fragileStrong but expensiveFragile and expensive

Bitcoin sits in “Strong and discounted”: quality A (very strong), price −34% from its estimated value.

To the right the strongest projects, at the top the lowest prices relative to their value. Dots: the 158 largest rated cryptos, excluding memecoins.

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Methodology and sources

Bitcoin’s trend value: 200-week average price, multiplied by the usual gap between price and that average over 6 years.

Gap = price ÷ value − 1. Hot above +40%, warm above +15%, mild between −15% and +15%, cold below −15%, freezing below −40%.

Project summary written by Dibagger with the help of AI, from its public descriptions (CoinGecko, DefiLlama); official links taken from the same sources.

Prices updated every 30 minutes, revenue daily, computed on Nov 4, 03:30 PM. Methodology v3. Full methodology

This information describes a situation; it is not investment advice.